Oscar throws some curveballs

Whatever BAFTA can do, Oscar can do better. That’s the message from this year’s nominations. You want predictable nominees, reinforcing bland ideals of ‘quality’ film-making? You got it? You want the best of independent and world cinema to be celebrated, creating shocks? You got that too!

In the first instance, we have Lincoln and Life Of Pi leading the pack with 12 nominations and 11 respectively. Unlike BAFTA, Oscar saw fit to nominate Mr Spielberg for Best Director for the presidential biography – that’s his seventh Best Director nomination.

But one of the early shocks is David O Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook, which has pulled in eight nominations, including one in each of the big seven categories (Film, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay). The last film to do that was Reds at the 1982 Oscars! Silver Lining's success also means the Robert De Niro garners his seventh Oscar nomination...  and his first in 21 years!

Another early shock is the performance of both Amour and Beasts Of The Southern Wild, with five and four noms respectively. The directors of both films have been nominated for Best Director.

Les Mis performed in line with expectations and tracking (eight noms), while those who were tempted to put money on Skyfall securing a Best Film nod won’t be heading back to the bookies with a grin on their face. Bond grabbed five noms, it’s highest profile being Best Song.

Among the shock omissions were:

• Ben Affleck not being nominated for Best Director;
• The Master securing nothing outside of the acting categories;
• John Hawkes not nominated for The Sessions;
• Kathryn Bigelow not nominated for Best Director on Zero Dark Thirty (which weakens the film’s chance of winning Best Film;
• And no nominations for Hitchcock in any major categories.

Other items of note include: both Daniel Day-Lewis and Denzel Washington going for their third Oscars; and the supporting actor shortlist comprising actors who have either won that category or Best Actor before.

Perhaps the most intriguing fight of the night will be for Best Costume Design. Why? Because 2012’s two Snow White movies (Mirror Mirror and Snow White & The Huntsman) go up against each other, although, given that they’re competing against Anna Karenina, Les Mis and Lincoln, they don’t have much of a chance.

Predictions? For Best Film, I reckon Oscar will go with Lincoln, almost certainly with Spielberg grabbing his third Best Director trophy. Daniel Day-Lewis will add Lincoln’s haul with Best Actor. Best Actress is completely unpredictable with the oldest ever nominee versus the youngest, but given that Oscar loves a good story from its ceremony, it must be between those two.

Hollywood loves polite fun being poked at it, so Alan Arkin just nudges out Philip Seymour Hoffman and Tommy Lee Jones.

Best Supporting Actress? I still can’t see how Anne Hathaway won’t win (I can see it now: the tears and the speech will beat Gwyneth Paltrow’s sobbing!), but Amy Adams has served her time (three previous nominations in this category) and this might be Sally Field’s last chance of an Oscar, so there are still obstacles in Hath’s way (you see what I did there?).

Oscar night is 24 February.